Any other combination will likely be bullish for equities, as it is clear that a lot of money has been sitting on the side-lines, waiting to jump back in. A contested Presidency and/or Senate result will be negative for markets, as would Trump Presidency and a Democrat Senate. We expect a choppy morning, and I'll leave it at that. Shanghai and Hong Kong markets are likely to open flat as well after the Ant Financial IPO was pulled overnight.Īsian markets are likely to have their eyes glued to the US index futures and will play follow the leader. This story will evolve once the US election passes. That is clearly weighing of local equities, and it should. Overnight, both the South China Post and Bloomberg ran stories saying that China had effectively banned a massive swath of Australian exports, except the sacred cows of iron ore and gas. Meanwhile, Australian markets are lower, with the ASX 200 down 0.30%, and the ASX 200 down 0.50%. The S&P 500 rose 1.78%, the NASDAQ climbed 1.85%, and the Nasdaq leapt 2.06% higher.Įarly Asia has seen the Nikkei jump by 1.73%, but the Kospi rose by only 0.65%. Following a strong showing by Asia yesterday, European and American markets piled into the trade once again, with Wall Street enjoying an outstanding day. The blue wave buy everything trade's momentum continued overnight. The morning will be noisy investors would be well advised to watch the show with everything but Yul Brunner - he was an actor for my millennial readers - from the side-lines. Such has been the momentum of the buy everything trades over the last 24 hours the correction lower could be emotional. The former, no matter who wins the Presidency, will probably be positive for equity markets. By that I mean, we will know whether there is a clear winner, or we are skimming the event horizon of a contested election for the Presidency or the Senate.
With the Senate race so tight, a nebulous result could see a reassessment of the blue wave.Īs results roll in across the Asian morning, we should know where we stand by midday Singapore time. Georgia is an oddity I that if there is no clear winner, its Senate seats to a run-off election in January. The oddity that is Georgia's voting system will be my first port of call, and we should get those preliminary results quite early this morning. I will be watching the US Senate race more closely, as the monstrous blue wave trade that financial markets have spent filling their boots with over the last 24 hours is predicated on that. That is, of course, if the polls are accurate. A win by President Trump keeps him in the race. A win for Joe Biden almost certainly unlocks the doors of the White House. All eyes are on Florida initially as the mother of all swing states. In other news, the US election polls are starting to close on the Eastern seaboard. (lockdown in Jakarta has led us to fascinating new activities) My hand is twice its usual size this morning but my big bosses scolding level is much much higher. My mistake was ignoring Mrs Halley's advice not to try and catch a community cat and leave it to the professionals in our neighbourhood trap-neuter-release programme. I empathise with Mr Ma, as the news broke while I was at the hospital having wounds cleaned and receiving the first of my four rabies vaccine shots over the next two weeks. There's only one big boss in China, and it's not Jack Ma. His comments on the Basle capital regulations clearly didn't resonate in the halls of power in Beijing, and today Mr Ma is less wealthy after Ali Baba stock was pummelled overnight. China's government appears to disagree with Mr Ma's assertion the Ant Financial is a tech company and not a financial one. It would appear that Jack (Icarus) Ma did just that with the Chinese Government and banking regulators last night, as Ant Financials’ IPO was pulled in Shanghai and Hong Kong.
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